Thesis Archive
The most useful investment ideas are easier to evaluate when the original thinking is preserved. This archive keeps dated theses intact—alongside retrospective commentary on what happened, what proved correct, what was underestimated, and what was learned. Original material is never rewritten to appear more prescient.
Biotech Investing: Five Basic Questions to Ask
Written for MicroCap Review in 2015, this piece argued that biotech’s acceleration reflected fundamental changes in how research was conducted—high-throughput screening, bioinformatics, increasingly efficient genome sequencing, and dramatically cheaper computing—and laid out five basic diligence questions for evaluating early-stage biotech investments.
Established the discipline of reading convergence — several enabling technologies compounding at once — as the signal that a field is structurally changing rather than simply cyclical.
CRISPR, Gene Editing Possibly the Biggest Biotech Advance since Mapping the Human Genome
A 2016 follow-on to the biotech thesis, arguing that CRISPR gene editing — layered on the earlier convergence of genome mapping, informatics and high-throughput screening — could reset the cost and speed of discovery across the entire field.
Reinforced pattern recognition — watching a single enabling technology reset the cost and speed of discovery across an entire field.
Coal will be 3rd Most Popular Source of Energy in 2030
A contrarian 2016 look at a sector widely declared dead, arguing that balance-sheet strength and leverage — not the structural decline of coal itself — would determine which companies survived and where value remained.
Focused attention on balance-sheet risk and leverage as the deciding variables when a structural, hard-to-reverse trend meets a distressed sector.
2016 Microcaps Trends – The Indians are Coming!
A 2016 piece observing that India — among the world’s fastest-growing economies — was strikingly underrepresented in US capital markets, and framing listing structure and market access as an investable opportunity.
Framed market access and listing structure as an investable edge, not just a backdrop.
Raising Capital in the Microcap Market: 7 Success Factors for Achieving Significant Capital Raise Objectives
A 2017 practitioner’s guide to raising capital in the microcap market, drawing out the role of institutional sponsorship and disciplined preparation — an early articulation of the idea that who backs a company is itself evidence.
An early articulation of institutional sponsorship as evidence — a precursor to what later became the Three Trigger Methodology.
Will the Private Public Joint Venture "PPJV" Reinvent the PIPE Market?
A 2017 examination of financing structure, proposing the Private Public Joint Venture as an alternative to dilutive PIPE transactions — and treating capital structure itself as a driver of risk and outcomes.
Deepened attention to capital structure and financing design as a driver of risk and outcomes.
Family Offices: What You Need to Know
A 2018 overview of family offices as the fastest-growing segment of the capital markets, and why understanding who controls capital — and how to reach them — is a distinct investment skill.
Reinforced access — understanding who controls capital and how to reach them — as a distinct investment skill.
Family Offices are Investing Heavily in Artificial Intelligence: Here are Five Reasons Why
A 2019 article on family-office investment in artificial intelligence and the Fourth Industrial Revolution — an early framing of AI as an economy-wide platform transition rather than a single-sector bet.
Marked the shift toward viewing AI and the Fourth Industrial Revolution as an economy-wide platform — the seed of the Computational Economy thesis.
The Wealthy are Leaving the Public Markets in Favor of Private Markets. Here’s Why.
A 2022 article connecting several long-running threads — artificial intelligence, biotechnology and gene editing, and the migration of value creation into private markets — and the case for a disciplined, institutionally validated approach to accessing top-tier venture opportunities. The full document is under compliance review and is not reproduced publicly here.
Recognizing a structural technology transition was not enough. Accessing the companies benefiting from that transition required a repeatable institutional-validation and private-market selection framework.
Evolution of an Investment Philosophy
How these dated observations compounded over time into the frameworks used today.