Thinking
Original essays on how technological, economic, and capital-market change becomes investable—pattern recognition, evidence over prediction, convergence, and the structural forces that reshape industries.
Biotech Investing — Eleven Years Later
Eleven years after Biotech Investing — Five Basic Questions to Ask, a retrospective on what the 2015 thesis got right and missed, and an emerging thesis: AI may change the organization and economics of drug development, not just the science.
Biotechnology · Oct 6, 2026 · 12 min read
Anthropic and the $30 Trillion Question
Anthropic's >$30 trillion TAM is best understood as AI-addressable economic activity, not forecast revenue. A framework for valuing intelligence—from run-rate multiples and gross margins to trust, commoditization, and the AI value chain.
Artificial Intelligence · Aug 27, 2026 · 14 min read
Recognizing Change Before It Becomes Consensus
A foundational essay explaining pattern recognition, evidence, convergence, and how I approach major inflection points.
In development